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12.27.2016

Headlines and Benefits Of Hindsight


What an interesting assortment of headlines on a single page! We are truly in VUCA world – a screen filled with headlines ranging from demonetization, Make in India, Cashless economy, crony bankers, global terrorism and off course, a sweet victory for Indian cricket team!. The key takeaways, are quite simple, you have arrived in an era marked by explicit volatility and uncertainty.  A quick glance through all the headlines reveals that heavy deposits are being made in banks and the government is trying hard to bring about quick solutions to the cash crunch. However, the deposit caps are making common populace anxious and there is a clear disconnect between the RBI and government on the note ban issue. Local businesses have surely struggled, despite an assurance by the FM that the RBI has adequate cash.  However, what’s even more interesting is that recent reading on the Q3 GDP, remember that we are having the benefit of the hind sight here!.....while the world seemed to go in a tailspin aftermath the note ban, the GDP growth has been pegged at 7% in quarter ending December 2016, while overall growth for FY 2016-17 has been estimated at 7.1%. This is in stark contrast to various estimates, including the International Monetary Fund’s which had expected economic growth to fall to 6% in the second half of the current fiscal year. Why on earth were the media and business news channels obsessed with the Demon in November-December if the underlying scenario was so sweet?

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